Tropical Storm Maria Spaghetti Models: Storm Track Update

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tropical storm mariaNHC

Tropical Storm Maria path as of September 16.

As Florida and the Caribbean are still picking up the pieces of Hurricane Irma, now comes news that Tropical Storm Maria is brewing along the same possible path.

What do the latest spaghetti models for Maria show? As of the evening of September 16, they showed the storm was a Category 3 Hurricane nearing the Dominican Republic and churning in the general direction of Florida. See here for a discussion of whether Maria might hit Florida.

Cyclocane has some of the best updated spaghetti models on Maria. See the Cyclocane Tropical Storm Maria spaghetti model page here and here. The weather tracking site also has a page of other models for following the storm’s path. Cyclocane has a page for Tropical Storm Lee too.

Wunderground’s tracker for the storm shows it veering to the north and not hitting the American coast. However, all of the models are simply projections.

The National Center for Atmospheric Research also has a page of updated spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Maria. You can see the latest for September 16 here and here. Behind Maria, lurks Tropical Storm Lee, and Tropical Storm Jose is twisting in the general direction of the eastern seaboard.

The National Hurricane Center uses a forecast cone model instead of spaghetti models. You can see the NHC page for tracking Tropical Storm Maria here.

Hurricane Maria GFS

National Hurricane CenterHurricane Maria

As of 8 p.m. on September 16, NHC gave this location for Maria:

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…12.4N 53.0W
ABOUT 590 MI…950 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 19 MPH…30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES

According to NHC, a Hurricane Watch was in effect for Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Guadeloupe. Barbuda was devastated by Hurricane Irma.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for St. Lucia, Martinique, Dominica, Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

“A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous,” The National Weather Service reported. “A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.”