Elon Musk recently announced that the first 30 Tesla Model 3 cars will be delivered in a special event on July 28. But is there any way to know when your Tesla Model 3 will be ready? Will you even receive it in 2017? So far, Tesla has not provided a way for customers to know exactly when their new cars will be ready. However, some enterprising fans have created online estimators based on all the information Musk and Tesla have shared. These can give you a general idea of when your car might be ready, so you can have a framework in mind if Tesla stays on track with its current production plans.
Here’s what you need to know.
Everything Known About Tesla Model 3 Production Plans
On July 3, Elon Musk tweeted about expected production for the Model 3. He said the car had passed all regulatory requirements and 100 cars should be built in August, increasing to 1,500 in September. By December, he estimated that Tesla should be producing 20,000 Model 3 cars every month.
We know that Tesla is expected to deliver Model 3 cars to its own employees first, according to a call that Musk had in February with analysts. This is in line with how the launch of other Tesla models were handled previously, and allows Tesla to get quick feedback on its cars.
Next, the cars will be delivered first to Tesla owners, especially those living closer to the Fremont plant. About 7 percent of reservation owners are current Tesla owners.
After previous owners receive their cars, production will then move on to everyone else, likely starting in the western part of the U.S. first and then moving on region by region.
We also know that the simpler Model 3s will be produced first, with AWD Model 3s starting in early 2018:
For drivers outside of the U.S. who need right hand driver cars, those are going to take longer. They won’t be on the road until sometime next summer in 2018.
With all of this knowledge in hand, some Tesla fans have created unofficial online estimators for figuring out when your Tesla is likely to be delivered.
Use ‘Troy’s Model 3 Estimator’ to Get an Estimate on When Your Tesla Will Be Ready
One of the best Model 3 estimators online is Troy’s Model 3 Estimator, created by Redditor Teslike (TeslaMotorsClub member Troy.) You can access the estimator, which is a Google Doc, here.
To use the estimator, just enter your delivery location, reservation date, reservation hour and time, ownership status (whether or not you are already a Tesla owner), and the Model 3 trim that you ordered. From this information, the doc estimates your global reservation number, your place on the list as of September 2017, and then uses the information to estimate your production start date, end date, and delivery date.
This estimator may not be completely accurate, but it’s the best we can get so far. It accounts for Tesla and SpaceX employees getting their cars first, along with current Tesla owners, and for West coast production to start before other regions. Troy also used knowledge of how the Model X production worked to make his estimates. You can see some of his reasoning for how he came up with certain estimates in this Reddit comment.
Troy has said that he will continue updating the estimator as Tesla releases more details, so check back every now and then to see if your estimated delivery date has changed.
Teslanomics Also Has a Model 3 Estimator
If you want to check out a different Model 3 estimator, Teslanomics has one here. Some people on Reddit have said that they don’t think this one is as accurate. One person said they inputted information for an order put in immediately, and it showed a delivery in just four months that should be a year away. However, others said they thought they got more accurate results. Test out the estimator yourself and let us know in the comments what you think.