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The marquee Week 8 college football matchup features Penn State hosting Michigan. According to OddsShark, Penn State is favored by 9.5 points, and the over-under is set at 44.
Penn State enters the game a perfect 6-0, and 4-1-1 against the spread. While Michigan is 5-1 this season, the Wolverines are only 2-3-1 against the spread. Both team’s games have trended towards hitting the under. Five of Penn State’s six games have hit the under, while Michigan’s point total has been under in four out of six matchups.
The OddsShark computer likes Penn State’s chances of a route. The computer is projecting a 36.2-20.6 Penn State victory. The computer is taking Penn State to cover the spread, and the over on the point total.
SB Nation’s S&P+ projections also offer a similar prediction. The projections have Penn State coming away with a 28.6-18.5 victory.
The Nittany Lions come in ranked No. 2 in the AP Poll. With the exception of their two-point victory over Iowa, Penn State has won every game they have played by double digits. The flip side is the Nittany Lions have not faced a lot of elite teams.
The best teams Penn State has played are Indiana, Iowa and Pitt. Michigan is a slight step up from all these teams, although the Wolverines narrowly escaped Indiana with an overtime victory.
Michigan have wins over Florida, Air Force, Purdue and Indiana. The Wolverines lone loss came against Michigan State. With Wilton Speight out, Michigan’s quarterback situation has been less than adequate as John O’Korn has struggled since taking over the position.
Last season, the Wolverines held Saquon Barkley to 59 rushing yards, but Barkley also had 77 receiving yards. His freshman season, Barkley only rushed for 68 yards against Michigan.
We expect tonight’s game to be a different story. Penn State has been a much better team than Michigan this season. With the inconsistency at quarterback, it is hard to imagine how Michigan’s offense competes in this game. To make it even more challenging, it is a night game at Penn State with their traditional white out.
We like Penn State to roll against Michigan and remain undefeated.
Heavy’s Pick: Penn State 28 Michigan 13. Penn State Covers -9.5 Spread. Under on the Point Total.