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NFL Week 4 features some great games, including an intriguing divisional matchup between the Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans. It’s a battle of young quarterbacks, as Marcus Mariota will square off with Deshaun Watson. While the Titans are 2-1, they’re also 2-1 against the spread (ATS). The Texans are 1-2 on the season but sit at 2-1 ATS ahead of the Week 4 game.
OddsShark currently has the spread right around -2.5 in favor of the Titans, which goes to show the respect that the oddsmakers have for the Texans. The over/under is 43.5, which has come down a bit after opening at 44. Currently, 53 percent of the public is on the Titans, while 67 percent is on the over.
As for the OddsShark computer, which predicts the outcome of games, it surprising has the Texans winning by just over a field goal (23.8 to 20.6), meaning you could get some nice odds on a money line bet for Houston. It would also just barely clear the over/under for a hit on the over side of the bet.
Both teams have shown flashes of being legitimate playoff contenders. The Titans have won back-to-back games, first against a team on the rise in the Jacksonville Jaguars 37-16, then the always-tough Seattle Seahawks 33-27.
As for the Texans, they may have two losses this season, but just suffered a very narrow 36-33 defeat to the defending Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots on the road, and topped the Cincinnati Bengals the week before that.
Prediction and Pick
There’s a lot to like on both sides of the ball here, and these are certainly teams on the rise in the NFL. But while the Texans looked good in their loss to the Patriots, they seemingly left a ton out on the field in that one. Bouncing back from a loss like that isn’t easy, and it certainly will be even tougher against a talented Titans team.
Tennessee is just on a roll right now, and Mariota looks like he’s ready for whatever matchup comes his way, even if it includes J.J. Watt and the tough Texans defense. I’m going to give the edge to the Titans here in what I think will wind up being a higher-scoring game than most people anticipate.
I’m going with a 31-24 win, as the Titans cover and the over hits.
Heavy’s Pick: Titans 31 Texans 24. Titans cover the -2.5 point spread. Over on the Point Total
Editor’s note: The Checkdown brings you live, interactive fantasy football advice every Sunday morning from 10 a.m.. to 1 p.m. Eastern on Heavy’s YouTube channel. Rick Rosen takes your questions and helps you fill out your lineup. Watch a replay of the Week 3 episode in the player below, and check out the live show right here on Sunday morning.