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The New England Patriots have the top futures among oddsmakers but are dead last in total defense, which means it might be time to hunt for value farther down the Super Bowl 52 odds board.
The Patriots’ price is as high as it’s been in some time at +450 at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. While quarterback Tom Brady is scarcely showing his age at 40 years old, New England is also last in the NFL in yards allowed and passing yards allowed heading into Week 6 of the season.
Teams which are all defense with a mediocre offense – see the 2015 Denver Broncos – occasionally win the Super Bowl, but it is next to impossible when the situation is reversed. The fact that the Patriots remain atop the board attests to the faith football experts have that coach Bill Belichick will plug any leaks by playoff time.
That being said, the value can be found outside of Foxborough. The Green Bay Packers (+500) and Kansas City Chiefs (+650) have each come down in price considerably at online sports betting sites after their impressive Week 5 wins.
The Packers are certainly a contender thanks to QB Aaron Rodgers, but their defense will need to tighten up considerably before they become the favorite to win the Super Bowl.
If one believes Kansas City is for real, then it’s best to see how they fare during their upcoming four-game gauntlet of the Pittsburgh Steelers (+1200), Oakland Raiders (+5000), Denver Broncos (+2000) and Dallas Cowboys (+2000). Winning three or more games during that stretch will lower the Chiefs’ price somewhat, albeit not to the extent that it kills their value.
The top of the board also includes the Seattle Seahawks (+1000), Philadelphia Eagles (+1000), Atlanta Falcons (+1200) and Pittsburgh Steelers (+1200). It might too early to say whether the Eagles and second-year QB Carson Wentz are for real, while those other three teams’ window to win the Super Bowl might be behind them, particularly in the case of the Seahawks.
Speaking of Oakland, the combination of a tough early schedule and a back injury to QB Derek Carr has caused their price to balloon. However, if they survive the stretch without Carr, they’ll still have a strong chance at the playoffs.
Among NFC teams, the Carolina Panthers (+2200) still have a high price after consecutive road wins against 2016 playoff teams (the Patriots and Detroit Lions), in spite of being tied for the best record in the conference. That likely won’t last long, but the fact Carolina plays only three more games against other 2016 playoff teams means they have a strong chance to have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
For more info, picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the new OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes, or check it out at OddsShark.libsyn.com.