The latest Hurricane Irma spaghetti models on the evening of Friday September 8, as the storm gets closer to making landfall, showed it continuing to shift to the west, continuing a recent trend. That puts west Florida in far more peril than the previous day, although all of the forecasting models are projections subject to change due to the storm’s unpredictability.
For several days, the models had shown the storm tracking eastward, which raised hopes it could move out to sea and raised concerns it could end up making landfall in South Carolina or along Florida’s eastern coast. Then, on Friday morning, the spaghetti models revealed a possible westward shift in the storm.
However, the Friday evening spaghetti models are showing that this westward shift is becoming more pronounced, imperiling the western coast of Florida. Cyclocane has a constantly updating spaghetti model. On the evening of September 8, it showed this westward shift, with the hurricane now tracking up the western coast of Florida, before crossing southwestern Georgia, and into parts of Alabama and Tennessee. Alabama being so possibly affected was the other big change from Friday morning to evening. (See more of the latest spaghetti models below.)
The South Florida Waste Management District has been running updated spaghetti models of Irma for days. Here, you can see a sequence of the models, most recent to older, to see how the storm has shifted.
This was the model on Friday morning:
The National Center for Atmospheric Research is also running constantly updating spaghetti models. Its plot for the evening of September 8 showed a similar trend. See also this plot.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) uses a different cone model. Here is what it showed on the evening of September 8 for comparison purposes:
Here are some other path maps from NOAA:
Here are some other recent spaghetti models: