We’ve all seen them by now: Spaghetti models that purport to track the potential path of the monstrous Hurricane Irma.
They’ve shown a few things over the past few days: They show the storm, after striking southern Florida, turning north. For a few days, they showed it shifting east before imperiling South Carolina. The most recent spaghetti models still show the northward turn, but they are now showing Irma striking through Georgia and reaching Tennessee after hitting Florida. Atlanta is even in the path of the hurricane in some of the September 8 spaghetti models. The latest models also show a shift to southwest Florida after days of modeling that showed the hurricane tracking up the eastern coast.
All of it’s a projection and could change as the unpredictable storm races toward Florida after demolishing areas of the Caribbean.
The South Florida Waste Management District runs updated spaghetti models on its page.
Here’s what that site’s September 8 morning spaghetti model shows.
Here’s the model from the evening of September 7.
This was the spaghetti model from SFWMD for earlier in the day on September 7, to show the shift:
Other spaghetti models are showing a similar path. Cyclocane’s latest spaghetti model also shows the hurricane now tracking into Georgia and Tennessee, although it’s not clear how strong it would be if it really got there. See the newest September 8 spaghetti model here.
This page also offers a hurricane storm tracker, radar, and other maps.
Some spaghetti maps show the hurricane’s eye hitting Miami.
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) also has a page of recent spaghetti models for Irma. NCAR’s September 8 plots also show a Florida-Georgia-Tennessee charting of the course. See one here. Here’s another.
NCAR is also tracking Hurricane Jose. Here’s a Jose spaghetti model for September 8. And here’s one for Katia.
The shift to the west matches the September 8 forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center, which is a different type of forecast model. Be aware that the hurricane remains very unpredictable.
Other recent spaghetti models showed less of a change.
There are many models for tracking the hurricane. Check this one out:
USA Today reported that, despite the different models, spaghetti, cones, and otherwise, experts aren’t sure what the hurricane will do after is likely strikes south Florida. According to USA Today, spaghetti models “show a range of tracks and offer a larger view of a storm’s potential path than a single model.”
There are different kinds of spaghetti models too. “Ensemble plots are among the different types of spaghetti plots. These feature the same forecast run multiple times over but with slightly different initial data input, such as a half-degree difference in ocean temperature or a slight change in the solar radiation,” USA Today reported.
The dictionary definition of a spaghetti model is “An illustration showing the various projected paths of a weather phenomenon (typically a tropical storm) created by different computer models.”